Atletico Nacional 3–1 Cucuta: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cucuta

D. Muñoz 59', 51'

P. Cucchi 9'

M. Pérez 45+1'

11/10/2019

Primera A · Clausura - Quadrangular - 1Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Atletico Nacional56%

×Draw25%

Cucuta18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchCucuta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.77

Atletico Nacional

1.56

Cucuta

0.77

Atletico Nacional creates 103% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

1.77

creates per match

0.76

0.77

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.77

Cucuta

0.76

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.77

Cucuta

1.36

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.73scores more

Cucuta+0.41scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Cucuta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

82%

Atletico Nacional or Cucuta

75%

Draw or Cucuta

44%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

30%

Cucuta wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

79%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

46%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

21%

Cucuta 1+ goals

54%

Cucuta 2+ goals

18%

Cucuta 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

75%

Cucuta (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 18 matches

Cucuta away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.77 + Cucuta defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cucuta attack 0.76 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

56%

level

25%

Cucuta scores more

18%

Atletico Nacional at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

D. Muñoz

Atletico Nacional · M

8.9

Match Events

9'

P. Cucchi↳ C. Mafla

26'

D. A. Sanchez Rodriguez

45+1'

M. Pérez↳ C. Valencia

46'

Helibelton Palacios← A. Reyes

51'

D. Muñoz↳ J. Ramírez

56'

D. Achucarro

57'

J. Barrera← J. Ramírez

59'

D. Muñoz↳ J. Barrera

61'

Y. Candelo← P. Cucchi

67'

C. Mina← A. Sarmiento

80'

E. Valencia← M. Pérez

81'

H. Barcos

84'

T. Costa

90'

A. Hinestroza

90+2'

Y. Carabalí← A. Hinestroza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoCucuta

Overview

54%Possession46%

24Total Shots11

8Corners5

10Fouls17

Shots

24Total Shots11

8On Target1

11Off Target6

5Blocked4

14Inside Box6

10Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

389Total Passes327

306Accurate Passes234

79%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3