Atletico Nacional 0–2 Argentinos JRS

Atletico Nacional

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Argentinos JRS

G. Ávalos 80', 18'

5/6/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group F - 3Estadio Manuel Ferreira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Atletico Nacional44%

×Draw27%

Argentinos JRS29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchArgentinos JRS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.05

Atletico Nacional

1.37

Argentinos JRS

1.05

Atletico Nacional creates 30% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

1.63

creates per match

1.22

0.88

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.63

Argentinos JRS

1.22

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.88

Argentinos JRS

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Argentinos JRS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Argentinos JRS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

71%

Atletico Nacional or Argentinos JRS

73%

Draw or Argentinos JRS

56%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

21%

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

75%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

40%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

16%

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals

65%

Argentinos JRS 2+ goals

28%

Argentinos JRS 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

61%

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Argentinos JRS away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.63 + Argentinos JRS defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.37

Argentinos JRS attack 1.22 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

44%

level

27%

Argentinos JRS scores more

29%

Atletico Nacional at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

G. Ávalos

Argentinos JRS · F

8.5

Match Events

2'

6'

18'

32'

49'

63'

64'

68'

71'

71'

78'

80'

81'

81'

M. Coronel← G. Hauche

84'

86'

M. Torren

87'

E. Herrera← G. Ávalos

87'

G. Carabajal← C. Florentín

89'

V. Hernández← J. Barrera

90+3'

F. Vera← F. Moyano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoArgentinos

Overview

48%Possession52%

8Total Shots14

3Corners2

18Fouls21

Shots

8Total Shots14

3On Target5

4Off Target9

1Blocked0

5Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

469Total Passes491

387Accurate Passes410

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls21

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1