Argentinos JRS 1–0 Atletico Nacional

Argentinos JRS

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Nacional

E. Herrera 90'

5/20/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group F - 5Estadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Argentinos JRS50%

×Draw30%

Atletico Nacional20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Argentinos JRSExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.66

Argentinos JRS

1.22

Atletico Nacional

0.66

Argentinos JRS creates 85% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

0.88

creates per match

0.69

0.63

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Argentinos JRS

0.88

Atletico Nacional

0.69

allows per match

Argentinos JRS

0.63

Atletico Nacional

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Argentinos JRS+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentinos JRS ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Argentinos JRS or draw

80%

Argentinos JRS or Atletico Nacional

70%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

50%

Winning margin

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+

22%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals

70%

Argentinos JRS 2+ goals

34%

Argentinos JRS 3+ goals

12%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

48%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

14%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)

71%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentinos JRS at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentinos JRS attack 0.88 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.22

Atletico Nacional attack 0.69 + Argentinos JRS defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Argentinos JRS scores more

50%

level

30%

Atletico Nacional scores more

20%

Argentinos JRS at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Argentinos JRS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

B. Perlaza

Atletico Nacional · M

7.6

Match Events

34'

M. Torren

43'

A. Andrade

49'

J. Alvez

73'

G. Carabajal← J. Sandoval

73'

E. Herrera← G. Ávalos

80'

L. Villalba← E. Gómez

82'

V. Hernández← A. Castro

83'

G. Carabajal

87'

D. Sosa← C. Florentín

88'

M. Romero← J. Gómez

88'

N. Moreno← A. Andrade

90+3'

D. Sosa

90+3'

B. Córdoba← S. Gómez

90'

E. Herrera↳ K. Mac Allister

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArgentinosAtletico

Overview

65%Possession35%

12Total Shots6

6Corners0

18Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots6

6On Target0

6Off Target4

0Blocked2

8Inside Box2

4Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

565Total Passes299

472Accurate Passes208

84%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides7