Atletico-MG 1–1 Atletico Goianiense: Result & Stats

Atletico-MG

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico Goianiense

Paulinho 23'

Luiz Fernando 11'

6/30/2024

Serie A · Round 13Arena MRV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Atletico-MG49%

×Draw26%

Atletico Goianiense25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico-MGExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.02

Atletico-MG

1.54

Atletico Goianiense

1.02

Atletico-MG creates 51% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 14 away

1.36

creates per match

0.92

1.13

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Atletico-MG

1.36

Atletico Goianiense

0.92

allows per match

Atletico-MG

1.13

Atletico Goianiense

1.72

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico-MG+0.24scores more

Atletico Goianiense-0.28scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico-MG ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atletico-MG or draw

75%

Atletico-MG or Atletico Goianiense

74%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

51%

Winning margin

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

25%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

79%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

45%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

20%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

64%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

27%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

66%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico-MG at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.13 · 40 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.72 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico-MG attack 1.36 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Atletico Goianiense attack 0.92 + Atletico-MG defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atletico-MG scores more

49%

level

26%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

25%

Atletico-MG at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Igor Rabello

Atletico-MG · D

7.9

Match Events

11'

Luiz Fernando↳ Lucas Kal

12'

Luiz FernandoGoal confirmed

23'

Paulinho

46'

Luiz Felipe← Alix

68'

Pedrinho← Paulo Vitor

73'

Luiz Felipe

85'

Max← A. Cruz

86'

Derek← E. Rodríguez

90+2'

Robert Santos← B. Palacios

90+2'

Alan Kardec← Cadu

90'

Randerson← Roni

90'

Bruno Tubarão← Maguinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Atletico-MGAtletico

Overview

68%Possession32%

15Total Shots12

0.75Expected Goals (xG)1.15

5Corners8

10Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots12

6On Target6

4Off Target4

5Blocked2

6Inside Box12

9Outside Box0

Passing

68%Possession32%

576Total Passes258

496Accurate Passes185

86%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

-0.02Goals Prevented-0.02

Discipline

10Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2