Atletico Goianiense 2–1 Atletico-MG: Result & Stats

Atletico Goianiense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico-MG

Oliveira 81'

Janderson 65'

Nathan Silva 59'

10/17/2021

Serie A · Round 27Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Atletico Goianiense40%

×Draw28%

Atletico-MG31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchAtletico-MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.04

Atletico Goianiense

1.23

Atletico-MG

1.04

Atletico Goianiense creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 44 away

1.16

creates per match

0.99

1.10

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.16

Atletico-MG

0.99

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.10

Atletico-MG

1.30

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.23scores less

Atletico-MG-0.08on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Atletico-MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

69%

Atletico Goianiense or Atletico-MG

72%

Draw or Atletico-MG

60%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

18%

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

71%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

35%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

13%

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

65%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

28%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

57%

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.10 · 14 matches

Atletico-MG away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.16 + Atletico-MG defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atletico-MG attack 0.99 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

40%

level

28%

Atletico-MG scores more

31%

Atletico Goianiense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

Nathan Silva

Atletico-MG · D

8.3

Match Events

7'

AllanPenalty cancelled

36'

Zé Roberto

46'

João Paulo← Ronald

59'

Nathan Silva↳ I. Fernández

62'

Marlon Freitas← Gabriel Baralhas

62'

B. Montenegro← Zé Roberto

65'

Janderson↳ Marlon Freitas

70'

Eduardo Sasha← Keno

70'

D. Borrero← Tchê Tchê

78'

Jefferson← André Luis

78'

Oliveira← Arnaldo

78'

Calebe← M. Zaracho

81'

Oliveira↳ Janderson

84'

Hyoran← Guga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoAtletico-MG

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots22

3Corners8

8Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots22

4On Target3

3Off Target10

2Blocked9

4Inside Box8

5Outside Box14

Passing

36%Possession64%

332Total Passes592

257Accurate Passes521

77%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1