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Atlético Melilla vs Arenas Armilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Atlético Melilla
Atlético Melilla
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Arenas Armilla
Arenas Armilla
2/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 22Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Melilla25%
×Draw28%
Arenas Armilla47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Melilla
0.88
Arenas Armilla
1.32

Arenas Armilla creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Atlético Melilla
0.59
Arenas Armilla
0.94

allows per match

Atlético Melilla
1.71
Arenas Armilla
1.16

finishing

Atlético Melilla+0.00on par
Arenas Armilla+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Melilla ↓

Arenas Armilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Melilla or draw
53%
Atlético Melilla or Arenas Armilla
72%
Draw or Arenas Armilla
75%

Winning margin

Atlético Melilla wins by 2+
8%
Arenas Armilla wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Atlético Melilla 1+ goals
59%
Atlético Melilla 2+ goals
22%
Atlético Melilla 3+ goals
6%
Arenas Armilla 1+ goals
73%
Arenas Armilla 2+ goals
38%
Arenas Armilla 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)
35%
Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Melilla at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Arenas Armilla away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Melilla attack 0.59 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.88

Arenas Armilla attack 0.94 + Atlético Melilla defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atlético Melilla scores more
25%
level
28%
Arenas Armilla scores more
47%

Arenas Armilla at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arenas Armilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Melilla 0 – 2 Arenas Armilla

Arenas Armilla beat Atlético Melilla 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.