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Arenas Armilla vs Atlético Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Arenas Armilla
Arenas Armilla
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Atlético Melilla
Atlético Melilla
10/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 5Estadio Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arenas Armilla78%
×Draw14%
Atlético Melilla8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Armilla
2.73
Atlético Melilla
0.79

Arenas Armilla creates 246% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Arenas Armilla
1.29
Atlético Melilla
0.47

allows per match

Arenas Armilla
1.10
Atlético Melilla
4.18

finishing

Arenas Armilla+0.00on par
Atlético Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Armilla ↓

Atlético Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Arenas Armilla or draw
92%
Arenas Armilla or Atlético Melilla
86%
Draw or Atlético Melilla
22%

Winning margin

Arenas Armilla wins by 2+
57%
Atlético Melilla wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Arenas Armilla 1+ goals
93%
Arenas Armilla 2+ goals
75%
Arenas Armilla 3+ goals
50%
Atlético Melilla 1+ goals
55%
Atlético Melilla 2+ goals
19%
Atlético Melilla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)
90%
Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Armilla at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Atlético Melilla away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Armilla attack 1.29 + Atlético Melilla defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.73

Atlético Melilla attack 0.47 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Arenas Armilla scores more
78%
level
14%
Atlético Melilla scores more
8%

Arenas Armilla at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Arenas Armilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Arenas Armilla 3–1 Atlético Melilla

Arenas Armilla beat Atlético Melilla 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal in Armilla.