Atletico Grau 1–1 Deportivo Garcilaso

Atletico Grau

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Garcilaso

R. Ruidiaz 53' (pen)

K. Sandoval 90'

8/6/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Campeones del 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Atletico Grau48%

×Draw24%

Deportivo Garcilaso29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GrauExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Garcilaso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.30

Atletico Grau

1.74

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.30

Atletico Grau creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.46

creates per match

1.23

1.37

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Atletico Grau

1.46

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.23

allows per match

Atletico Grau

1.37

Deportivo Garcilaso

2.03

-0.46scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Grau-0.46scores less

Deportivo Garcilaso-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Deportivo Garcilaso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw

71%

Atletico Grau or Deportivo Garcilaso

76%

Draw or Deportivo Garcilaso

52%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

26%

Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

82%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

52%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

25%

Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals

73%

Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals

37%

Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

62%

Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.37 · 8 matches

Deportivo Garcilaso away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.03 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 1.46 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.74

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.23 + Atletico Grau defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atletico Grau scores more

48%

level

24%

Deportivo Garcilaso scores more

29%

Atletico Grau at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

R. Ruidiaz

Atletico Grau · F

8.0

Match Events

8'

Nicolás Gómez

46'

E. Rodas← B. Garcia

53'

R. RuidiazPenalty

56'

J. Garro← C. Olivares

64'

F. Arancibia← N. Gomez

65'

Herrera Joel← P. de la Cruz

72'

J. Sinisterra← E. Naya

72'

J. Bazan← Y. Celi

73'

Juan Garro

77'

Erick Canales

79'

A. Vasquez← R. Tapia

84'

Joel HerreraPenalty cancelled

86'

89'

90+1'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoDeportivo

Overview

57%Possession43%

16Total Shots16

1.70Expected Goals (xG)2.06

3Corners6

18Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots16

4On Target5

9Off Target7

3Blocked4

9Inside Box11

7Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

338Total Passes248

274Accurate Passes159

81%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

1Offsides0

Primera División: Atletico Grau 1–1 Deportivo Garcilaso

Atletico Grau and Deportivo Garcilaso drew 1-1 in Primera División on August 6, 2025.

Goals: R. Ruidiaz (53' pen), K. Sandoval (90').

Atletico Grau controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones del 36 in Sullana.

Atletico Grau vs Deportivo Garcilaso — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Atletico Grau 1–1 Deportivo Garcilaso