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Atletico Grau vs Deportivo Garcilaso — Primera División 2026

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso
N. Bandiera 86'
M. da Luz 31'
A. Ugarriza 83' (pen)
E. Perleche 16'
10/22/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 15Estadio Campeones del '36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Atletico Grau48%
×Draw24%
Deportivo Garcilaso29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
1.74
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.30

Atletico Grau creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
1.46
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.23

allows per match

Atletico Grau
1.37
Deportivo Garcilaso
2.03

finishing

Atletico Grau-0.46scores less
Deportivo Garcilaso-0.12scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Deportivo Garcilaso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
71%
Atletico Grau or Deportivo Garcilaso
76%
Draw or Deportivo Garcilaso
52%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
26%
Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
82%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
52%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
25%
Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals
73%
Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals
37%
Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
62%
Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.37 · 8 matches

Deportivo Garcilaso away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.03 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 1.46 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.74

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.23 + Atletico Grau defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
48%
level
24%
Deportivo Garcilaso scores more
29%

Atletico Grau at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
E. Perleche↳ P. Erustes
31'
M. da Luz
45+3'
Pablo Erustes
46'
G. Gentile← D. Carando
46'
E. Gonzáles← A. Chicaiza
59'
A. Ugarriza← P. Erustes
66'
E. Canales← E. Perleche
73'
Diego Soto
77'
A. Rosell← E. Rodas
77'
A. Vásquez← M. da Luz
77'
J. Reyes← J. Rostaing
77'
F. Oncoy← D. Soto
83'
A. UgarrizaPenalty
85'
Alvaro Ampuero
86'
Ray Sandoval
86'
N. Bandiera↳ A. Rosell
90+2'
A. Yovera← A. Gordillo

Shots

5Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoDeportivo
Overview
5Total Shots1
4Corners0
4Fouls1
Shots
5Total Shots1
3On Target1
2Off Target0
0Blocked0
0Inside Box0
0Outside Box0
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
4Fouls1
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
0Offsides0

Match Recap: Atletico Grau vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Atletico Grau and Deportivo Garcilaso drew 2-2 in Primera División on October 22, 2024.

Goals: E. Perleche (16'), M. da Luz (31'), A. Ugarriza (83' pen), N. Bandiera (86').

The match was played at Estadio Campeones del '36 in Sullana.