Atletico Grau 1–1 Alianza Atletico: Result & Stats

Atletico Grau

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Alianza Atletico

11/2/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 17Estadio Campeones del 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Atletico Grau52%

×Draw25%

Alianza Atletico23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GrauExpected goals in this matchAlianza Atletico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.95

Atletico Grau

1.57

Alianza Atletico

0.95

Atletico Grau creates 65% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 93 away

1.53

creates per match

0.89

1.01

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Atletico Grau

1.53

Alianza Atletico

0.89

allows per match

Atletico Grau

1.01

Alianza Atletico

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Alianza Atletico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw

77%

Atletico Grau or Alianza Atletico

75%

Draw or Alianza Atletico

48%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

27%

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

79%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

46%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

21%

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

61%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

25%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

69%

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.01 · 92 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.61 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 1.53 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.57

Alianza Atletico attack 0.89 + Atletico Grau defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atletico Grau scores more

52%

level

25%

Alianza Atletico scores more

23%

Atletico Grau at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff