Alianza Atletico 0–0 Atletico Grau: Result & Stats

Alianza Atletico

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Grau

7/14/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 1Estadio Campeones del '36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Alianza Atletico49%

×Draw27%

Atletico Grau24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza AtleticoExpected goals in this matchAtletico Grau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.90

Alianza Atletico

1.42

Atletico Grau

0.90

Alianza Atletico creates 58% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 94 away

1.46

creates per match

0.86

0.93

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Alianza Atletico

1.46

Atletico Grau

0.86

allows per match

Alianza Atletico

0.93

Atletico Grau

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Atletico Grau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw

76%

Alianza Atletico or Atletico Grau

73%

Draw or Atletico Grau

51%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

24%

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

76%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

41%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

17%

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

59%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

23%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

67%

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.38 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 1.46 + Atletico Grau defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Atletico Grau attack 0.86 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more

49%

level

27%

Atletico Grau scores more

24%

Alianza Atletico at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff