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Atletico Grau vs Alfredo Salinas — Segunda División 2018

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alfredo Salinas
Alfredo Salinas
9/9/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 24Estadio Miguel Grau de Piura (Piura)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Atletico Grau81%
×Draw13%
Alfredo Salinas6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
2.75
Alfredo Salinas
0.63

Atletico Grau creates 337% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 14 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
2.79
Alfredo Salinas
0.43

allows per match

Atletico Grau
0.82
Alfredo Salinas
2.71

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par
Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Alfredo Salinas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
94%
Atletico Grau or Alfredo Salinas
87%
Draw or Alfredo Salinas
19%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
60%
Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
93%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
75%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
51%
Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals
47%
Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals
13%
Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
93%
Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 2.79, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

Alfredo Salinas away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 2.79 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.75

Alfredo Salinas attack 0.43 + Atletico Grau defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
81%
level
13%
Alfredo Salinas scores more
6%

Atletico Grau at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Atletico Grau 4–0 Alfredo Salinas

Atletico Grau beat Alfredo Salinas 4-0 in Segunda División on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau de Piura (Piura).