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Alfredo Salinas vs Atletico Grau — Segunda División 2018

Alfredo Salinas
Alfredo Salinas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
6/3/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9Estadio Municipal de Espinar (Espinar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alfredo Salinas38%
×Draw23%
Atletico Grau39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfredo Salinas
1.65
Atletico Grau
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 40 away

creates per match

Alfredo Salinas
1.36
Atletico Grau
1.35

allows per match

Alfredo Salinas
2.00
Atletico Grau
1.93

finishing

Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par
Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfredo Salinas ↓

Atletico Grau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Alfredo Salinas or draw
61%
Alfredo Salinas or Atletico Grau
77%
Draw or Atletico Grau
62%

Winning margin

Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+
19%
Atletico Grau wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals
81%
Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals
49%
Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals
23%
Atletico Grau 1+ goals
81%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
50%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)
49%
Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfredo Salinas at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.93 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfredo Salinas attack 1.36 + Atletico Grau defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.65

Atletico Grau attack 1.35 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alfredo Salinas scores more
38%
level
23%
Atletico Grau scores more
39%

Atletico Grau at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Alfredo Salinas 1–1 Atletico Grau

Alfredo Salinas and Atletico Grau drew 1-1 in Segunda División on June 3, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Espinar (Espinar).