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Atletico Grau vs ADT — Primera División 2026

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ADT
ADT
8/31/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Campeones del 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Atletico Grau51%
×Draw25%
ADT24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
1.58
ADT
0.99

Atletico Grau creates 60% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 78 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
1.53
ADT
0.97

allows per match

Atletico Grau
1.01
ADT
1.62

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par
ADT+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

ADT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
76%
Atletico Grau or ADT
75%
Draw or ADT
49%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
27%
ADT wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
79%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
47%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
21%
ADT 1+ goals
63%
ADT 2+ goals
26%
ADT 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
68%
ADT (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.01 · 92 matches

ADT away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.62 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 1.53 + ADT defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

ADT attack 0.97 + Atletico Grau defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
51%
level
25%
ADT scores more
24%

Atletico Grau at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Atletico Grau 2–0 ADT

Atletico Grau beat ADT 2-0 in Primera División on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones del 36 in Sullana.