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ADT vs Atletico Grau — Primera División 2026

ADT
ADT
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
8/4/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 5Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

ADT50%
×Draw27%
Atletico Grau23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADT
1.44
Atletico Grau
0.87

ADT creates 66% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 94 away

creates per match

ADT
1.49
Atletico Grau
0.86

allows per match

ADT
0.88
Atletico Grau
1.38

finishing

ADT+0.00on par
Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADT ↓

Atletico Grau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

ADT or draw
77%
ADT or Atletico Grau
73%
Draw or Atletico Grau
50%

Winning margin

ADT wins by 2+
25%
Atletico Grau wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ADT 1+ goals
76%
ADT 2+ goals
42%
ADT 3+ goals
18%
Atletico Grau 1+ goals
58%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
22%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

ADT (draw refunded)
69%
Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADT at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.38 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADT attack 1.49 + Atletico Grau defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Atletico Grau attack 0.86 + ADT defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ADT scores more
50%
level
27%
Atletico Grau scores more
23%

ADT at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ADT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ADT vs Atletico Grau

Atletico Grau beat ADT 2-1 in Primera División on August 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma in Tarma.