Atletico Goianiense 3–1 Sport Recife

Atletico Goianiense

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Sport Recife

7/15/2023

Serie B · Round 17Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Atletico Goianiense44%

×Draw29%

Sport Recife27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.92

Atletico Goianiense

1.25

Sport Recife

0.92

Atletico Goianiense creates 36% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 83 away

1.49

creates per match

0.90

0.94

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.49

Sport Recife

0.90

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

0.94

Sport Recife

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

73%

Atletico Goianiense or Sport Recife

71%

Draw or Sport Recife

56%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

20%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

71%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

36%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

13%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

60%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

23%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

62%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.94 · 84 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.02 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.49 + Sport Recife defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sport Recife attack 0.90 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

44%

level

29%

Sport Recife scores more

27%

Atletico Goianiense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff