Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife — Serie A 2026

Atletico Goianiense
Atletico Goianiense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Recife
Sport Recife
7/7/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 10Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Atletico Goianiense48%
×Draw28%
Sport Recife24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Goianiense
1.35
Sport Recife
0.87

Atletico Goianiense creates 55% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 76 away

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense
1.04
Sport Recife
0.66

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense
1.08
Sport Recife
1.67

finishing

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par
Sport Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Sport Recife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw
76%
Atletico Goianiense or Sport Recife
72%
Draw or Sport Recife
52%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+
23%
Sport Recife wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals
74%
Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals
39%
Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals
15%
Sport Recife 1+ goals
58%
Sport Recife 2+ goals
22%
Sport Recife 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)
66%
Sport Recife (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.08 · 76 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.67 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.04 + Sport Recife defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sport Recife attack 0.66 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more
48%
level
28%
Sport Recife scores more
24%

Atletico Goianiense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife

Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife drew 1-1 in Serie A on July 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Accioly in Goiânia, Goiás.