Atletico Goianiense 2–0 Coritiba: Result & Stats

Atletico Goianiense

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Coritiba

Airton 90'

Jorginho 45+2'

5/21/2022

Serie A · Round 7Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Atletico Goianiense41%

×Draw27%

Coritiba32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.14

Atletico Goianiense

1.32

Coritiba

1.14

Atletico Goianiense creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

1.14

creates per match

1.13

1.15

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.14

Coritiba

1.13

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.15

Coritiba

1.51

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.14scores less

Coritiba+0.43scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

68%

Atletico Goianiense or Coritiba

73%

Draw or Coritiba

59%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

19%

Coritiba wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

73%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

38%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

15%

Coritiba 1+ goals

68%

Coritiba 2+ goals

32%

Coritiba 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

56%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.15 · 7 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.51 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.14 + Coritiba defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Coritiba attack 1.13 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

41%

level

27%

Coritiba scores more

32%

Atletico Goianiense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Ronaldo

Atletico Goianiense · G

8.2

Match Events

42'

Hayner

45'

Alef Manga

45+2'

Jorginho↳ Hayner

60'

Fabrício Daniel← Alef Manga

65'

Airton← Luiz Fernando

65'

D. Churín← Shaylon

66'

Val← Andrey

66'

Guilherme Biro← Egídio

67'

Diego Churin

75'

A. Martínez← Robinho

75'

Hugo← Igor Paixão

76'

Arthur← Jorginho

81'

Edson Fernando← Wellington Rato

86'

87'

90+6'

90+5'

90+5'

Luciano CastanCard upgrade

90'

Airton↳ Hayner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoCoritiba

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots14

3Corners5

14Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots14

3On Target6

7Off Target6

7Blocked2

11Inside Box7

6Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

499Total Passes355

426Accurate Passes291

85%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls13

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards2

1Offsides1

Serie A: Atletico Goianiense 2–0 Coritiba

Atletico Goianiense beat Coritiba 2-0 in Serie A on May 21, 2022.

Goals: Jorginho (45+2'), Airton (90').

Atletico Goianiense controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Accioly in Goiânia, Goiás.

Atletico Goianiense vs Coritiba — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Atletico Goianiense 2–0 Coritiba