Atletico Goianiense 3–1 Coritiba: Result & Stats

Atletico Goianiense

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Coritiba

Guilherme Biro 45+2' (OG)

Wellington Rato 34'

Gilvan 3'

Ricardo Oliveira 63'

2/26/2021

Serie A · Round 38Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Atletico Goianiense41%

×Draw27%

Coritiba32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.14

Atletico Goianiense

1.32

Coritiba

1.14

Atletico Goianiense creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

1.14

creates per match

1.13

1.15

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.14

Coritiba

1.13

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.15

Coritiba

1.51

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.14scores less

Coritiba+0.43scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

68%

Atletico Goianiense or Coritiba

73%

Draw or Coritiba

59%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

19%

Coritiba wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

73%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

38%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

15%

Coritiba 1+ goals

68%

Coritiba 2+ goals

32%

Coritiba 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

56%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.15 · 7 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.51 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.14 + Coritiba defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Coritiba attack 1.13 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

41%

level

27%

Coritiba scores more

32%

Atletico Goianiense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Gilvan

Atletico Goianiense · D

7.6

Match Events

3'

Gilvan↳ Chico

34'

Wellington Rato↳ Chico

45+2'

Guilherme BiroOwn goal

46'

Matheus Vargas← Wellington Rato

46'

Oliveira← João Victor

46'

Marlon Freitas← Willian Maranhão

57'

Pablo Thomaz← Angelo

63'

Ricardo Oliveira↳ Luizinho

68'

Zé Roberto← Roberson

68'

Janderson← Chico

70'

Cristiano← Biel

80'

Martin Sarrafiore

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoCoritiba

Overview

55%Possession45%

18Total Shots9

7Corners4

8Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots9

7On Target1

8Off Target8

3Blocked0

10Inside Box5

8Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

556Total Passes435

488Accurate Passes358

88%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1