Atletico Goianiense 3–1 ABC: Result & Stats

Atletico Goianiense

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

ABC

Gabriel Baralhas 85'

Gustavo Coutinho 52'

Kelvin 4'

Paulo Sérgio 82'

10/19/2023

Serie B · Round 33Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Atletico Goianiense56%

×Draw25%

ABC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchABC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.79

Atletico Goianiense

1.56

ABC

0.79

Atletico Goianiense creates 97% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 23 away

1.59

creates per match

0.70

0.89

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.59

ABC

0.70

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

0.89

ABC

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

ABC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

81%

Atletico Goianiense or ABC

75%

Draw or ABC

44%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

29%

ABC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

79%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

46%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

21%

ABC 1+ goals

55%

ABC 2+ goals

19%

ABC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

75%

ABC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.89 · 73 matches

ABC away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.59 + ABC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

ABC attack 0.70 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

56%

level

25%

ABC scores more

19%

Atletico Goianiense at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Kelvin

Atletico Goianiense · M

7.7

Match Events

4'

22'

35'

39'

46'

Paulo Sérgio← Thonny Anderson

46'

Daniel Carvalho← Nathan Melo

52'

Gustavo Coutinho↳ Dodô

61'

Ramon Vinicius

64'

Airton← Luiz Fernando

64'

Matheus Peixoto← Gustavo Coutinho

67'

Gabriel Baralhas

78'

Matheus Régis← Kelvin

79'

Rhaldney← Dodô

79'

Romário← Andrey

79'

Wellington Reis← Ramon

82'

Paulo Sérgio

84'

Paulo SérgioGoal confirmed

85'

Gabriel Baralhas↳ Matheus Peixoto

89'

Marcos Serrato← Gabriel Baralhas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoABC

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots10

4Corners3

18Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots10

7On Target2

2Off Target4

5Blocked4

9Inside Box5

5Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

417Total Passes328

352Accurate Passes274

84%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs ABC

Atletico Goianiense beat ABC 3-1 in Serie B on October 19, 2023.

Goals: Kelvin (4'), Gustavo Coutinho (52'), Paulo Sérgio (82'), Gabriel Baralhas (85').

Atletico Goianiense controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Accioly in Goiânia, Goiás.

Atletico Goianiense vs ABC — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs ABC