ABC 1–1 Atletico Goianiense: Result & Stats

ABC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Goianiense

Thonny Anderson 81' (pen)

4 David Francisco 90+14'

6/28/2023

Serie B · Round 14Estádio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ABC32%

×Draw30%

Atletico Goianiense38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.08

ABC

0.96

Atletico Goianiense

1.08

Atletico Goianiense creates 13% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 72 away

0.70

creates per match

1.03

1.13

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

ABC

0.70

Atletico Goianiense

1.03

allows per match

ABC

1.13

Atletico Goianiense

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

ABC or draw

62%

ABC or Atletico Goianiense

70%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

68%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

12%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

62%

ABC 2+ goals

25%

ABC 3+ goals

7%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

66%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

29%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

46%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 0.70, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.22 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 0.70 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.96

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.03 + ABC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

ABC scores more

32%

level

30%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

38%

Atletico Goianiense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Thonny Anderson

ABC · M

7.5

Match Events

-5'

Alemão

39'

Rhaldney

45'

Wellington Reis

46'

Ramon← Wellington Reis

46'

Airton← Rhaldney

50'

Renato

51'

Thonny Anderson

59'

Emerson Santos← Bruno Tubarão

63'

Matheus Sales

64'

Diego Loureiro

69'

David Francisco← Daniel

76'

Thonny AndersonPenalty confirmed

77'

Diego Loureiro

77'

Diego Loureiro

80'

Ronaldo← Matheus Sales

81'

Thonny AndersonPenalty

84'

Habraão← Alemão

88'

Jean Patrick← Thonny Anderson

88'

Lucas Tocantins← Fábio Lima

90+10'

Maycon Douglas

90+4'

Felipe Garcia

90+4'

Felipe GarciaCard upgrade

90+2'

Maycon Douglas← Matheus Anjos

90+14'

4 David Francisco↳ Airton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ABCAtletico

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots13

5Corners4

16Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots13

3On Target3

6Off Target6

3Blocked4

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

357Total Passes427

278Accurate Passes345

78%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls16

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Serie B: ABC 1–1 Atletico Goianiense

ABC and Atletico Goianiense drew 1-1 in Serie B on June 28, 2023.

Goals: Thonny Anderson (81' pen), 4 David Francisco (90+14').

Atletico Goianiense controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estádio Maria Lamas Farache in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte.

ABC vs Atletico Goianiense — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: ABC 1–1 Atletico Goianiense