Atletico GO U17 1–2 Palmeiras U17: Result & Stats

Atletico GO U17

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Palmeiras U17

5/30/2026

Brasileiro U17 · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atletico GO U1718%

×Draw20%

Palmeiras U1762%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GO U17Expected goals in this matchPalmeiras U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

2.13

Atletico GO U17

1.05

Palmeiras U17

2.13

Palmeiras U17 creates 103% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

0.88

creates per match

2.06

2.19

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Atletico GO U17

0.88

Palmeiras U17

2.06

allows per match

Atletico GO U17

2.19

Palmeiras U17

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico GO U17+0.00on par

Palmeiras U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico GO U17 ↓

Palmeiras U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Atletico GO U17 or draw

38%

Atletico GO U17 or Palmeiras U17

80%

Draw or Palmeiras U17

82%

Winning margin

Atletico GO U17 wins by 2+

6%

Palmeiras U17 wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Atletico GO U17 1+ goals

65%

Atletico GO U17 2+ goals

28%

Atletico GO U17 3+ goals

9%

Palmeiras U17 1+ goals

88%

Palmeiras U17 2+ goals

63%

Palmeiras U17 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Atletico GO U17 (draw refunded)

22%

Palmeiras U17 (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico GO U17 at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Palmeiras U17 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico GO U17 attack 0.88 + Palmeiras U17 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Palmeiras U17 attack 2.06 + Atletico GO U17 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Atletico GO U17 scores more

18%

level

20%

Palmeiras U17 scores more

62%

Palmeiras U17 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Palmeiras U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff