Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atlético Espeleño vs Atlético Central — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Central
Atlético Central
2/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 21Campo de Fútbol Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Atlético Espeleño39%
×Draw30%
Atlético Central31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Espeleño
1.13
Atlético Central
0.96

Atlético Espeleño creates 18% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 35 away

creates per match

Atlético Espeleño
1.35
Atlético Central
0.77

allows per match

Atlético Espeleño
1.16
Atlético Central
0.91

finishing

Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par
Atlético Central+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Espeleño ↓

Atlético Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Espeleño or draw
69%
Atlético Espeleño or Atlético Central
70%
Draw or Atlético Central
61%

Winning margin

Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
16%
Atlético Central wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
31%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
11%
Atlético Central 1+ goals
62%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
25%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
56%
Atlético Central (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Espeleño at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches

Atlético Central away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Espeleño attack 1.35 + Atlético Central defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.13

Atlético Central attack 0.77 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Espeleño scores more
39%
level
30%
Atlético Central scores more
31%

Atlético Espeleño at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Espeleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Atlético Espeleño 2–2 Atlético Central

Atlético Espeleño and Atlético Central drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal in Espiel.