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Atlético Central vs Atlético Espeleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Central
Atlético Central
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
9/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 4Centro Deportivo Vega de Triana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Atlético Central59%
×Draw23%
Atlético Espeleño18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Central
1.75
Atlético Espeleño
0.83

Atlético Central creates 111% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 49 away

creates per match

Atlético Central
1.61
Atlético Espeleño
0.92

allows per match

Atlético Central
0.75
Atlético Espeleño
1.90

finishing

Atlético Central+0.00on par
Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Central ↓

Atlético Espeleño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Central or draw
82%
Atlético Central or Atlético Espeleño
77%
Draw or Atlético Espeleño
41%

Winning margin

Atlético Central wins by 2+
34%
Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atlético Central 1+ goals
83%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
52%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
25%
Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
20%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Central (draw refunded)
77%
Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Central at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Atlético Espeleño away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.90 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Central attack 1.61 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.75

Atlético Espeleño attack 0.92 + Atlético Central defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Atlético Central scores more
59%
level
23%
Atlético Espeleño scores more
18%

Atlético Central at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Atlético Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Atlético Central 3–1 Atlético Espeleño

Atlético Central beat Atlético Espeleño 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Centro Deportivo Vega de Triana in Sevilla.