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Atletico DE Rafaela vs Aldosivi — Primera Nacional 2026

Atletico DE Rafaela
Atletico DE Rafaela
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Aldosivi
Aldosivi
6/23/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 20Estadio Nuevo Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Atletico DE Rafaela41%
×Draw29%
Aldosivi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico DE Rafaela
1.19
Aldosivi
0.96

Atletico DE Rafaela creates 24% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 36 away

creates per match

Atletico DE Rafaela
1.21
Aldosivi
0.97

allows per match

Atletico DE Rafaela
0.95
Aldosivi
1.17

finishing

Atletico DE Rafaela+0.00on par
Aldosivi+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico DE Rafaela ↓

Aldosivi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atletico DE Rafaela or draw
70%
Atletico DE Rafaela or Aldosivi
71%
Draw or Aldosivi
59%

Winning margin

Atletico DE Rafaela wins by 2+
18%
Aldosivi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atletico DE Rafaela 1+ goals
70%
Atletico DE Rafaela 2+ goals
33%
Atletico DE Rafaela 3+ goals
12%
Aldosivi 1+ goals
62%
Aldosivi 2+ goals
25%
Aldosivi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atletico DE Rafaela (draw refunded)
58%
Aldosivi (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico DE Rafaela at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.95 · 110 matches

Aldosivi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico DE Rafaela attack 1.21 + Aldosivi defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Aldosivi attack 0.97 + Atletico DE Rafaela defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atletico DE Rafaela scores more
41%
level
29%
Aldosivi scores more
30%

Atletico DE Rafaela at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atletico DE Rafaela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico DE Rafaela vs Aldosivi

Aldosivi beat Atletico DE Rafaela 2-0 in Primera Nacional on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Monumental in Rafaela, Provincia de Santa Fe.