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Aldosivi vs Atletico DE Rafaela — Primera Nacional 2026

Aldosivi
Aldosivi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico DE Rafaela
Atletico DE Rafaela
8/25/2023Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Group B - 27Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aldosivi46%
×Draw31%
Atletico DE Rafaela23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aldosivi
1.16
Atletico DE Rafaela
0.73

Aldosivi creates 59% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 110 away

creates per match

Aldosivi
1.11
Atletico DE Rafaela
0.76

allows per match

Aldosivi
0.70
Atletico DE Rafaela
1.21

finishing

Aldosivi+0.00on par
Atletico DE Rafaela+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

Atletico DE Rafaela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw
77%
Aldosivi or Atletico DE Rafaela
69%
Draw or Atletico DE Rafaela
54%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+
20%
Atletico DE Rafaela wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals
69%
Aldosivi 2+ goals
32%
Aldosivi 3+ goals
11%
Atletico DE Rafaela 1+ goals
52%
Atletico DE Rafaela 2+ goals
17%
Atletico DE Rafaela 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)
67%
Atletico DE Rafaela (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

Atletico DE Rafaela away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 1.11 + Atletico DE Rafaela defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Atletico DE Rafaela attack 0.76 + Aldosivi defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aldosivi scores more
46%
level
31%
Atletico DE Rafaela scores more
23%

Aldosivi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aldosivi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Aldosivi 0–1 Atletico DE Rafaela

Atletico DE Rafaela beat Aldosivi 1-0 in Primera Nacional on August 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio José María Minella in Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.