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Atlético CP vs Felgueiras 1932 — Taça de Portugal 2018

Atlético CP
Atlético CPadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
10/19/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Atlético CP29%
×Draw28%
Felgueiras 193243%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético CP
1.00
Felgueiras 1932
1.30

Felgueiras 1932 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Atlético CP
1.20
Felgueiras 1932
2.00

allows per match

Atlético CP
0.60
Felgueiras 1932
0.80

finishing

Atlético CP+0.00on par
Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético CP ↓

Felgueiras 1932 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético CP or draw
57%
Atlético CP or Felgueiras 1932
72%
Draw or Felgueiras 1932
71%

Winning margin

Atlético CP wins by 2+
11%
Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Atlético CP 1+ goals
63%
Atlético CP 2+ goals
26%
Atlético CP 3+ goals
8%
Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
73%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
37%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atlético CP (draw refunded)
40%
Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético CP at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Felgueiras 1932 away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético CP attack 1.20 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.00

Felgueiras 1932 attack 2.00 + Atlético CP defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlético CP scores more
29%
level
28%
Felgueiras 1932 scores more
43%

Felgueiras 1932 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético CP vs Felgueiras 1932

Atlético CP beat Felgueiras 1932 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 19, 2025.