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Atlético CP vs Felgueiras 1932 — Liga 3 2021

Atlético CP
Atlético CP
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
2/10/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 1Estádio Da Tapadinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Atlético CP37%
×Draw28%
Felgueiras 193235%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético CP
1.22
Felgueiras 1932
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 44 away

creates per match

Atlético CP
1.33
Felgueiras 1932
1.39

allows per match

Atlético CP
1.00
Felgueiras 1932
1.11

finishing

Atlético CP+0.00on par
Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético CP ↓

Felgueiras 1932 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético CP or draw
65%
Atlético CP or Felgueiras 1932
72%
Draw or Felgueiras 1932
63%

Winning margin

Atlético CP wins by 2+
16%
Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atlético CP 1+ goals
70%
Atlético CP 2+ goals
34%
Atlético CP 3+ goals
12%
Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
70%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
33%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atlético CP (draw refunded)
51%
Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético CP at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 46 matches

Felgueiras 1932 away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético CP attack 1.33 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.39 + Atlético CP defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético CP scores more
37%
level
28%
Felgueiras 1932 scores more
35%

Atlético CP at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Atlético CP 1–1 Felgueiras 1932

Atlético CP and Felgueiras 1932 drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Da Tapadinha in Lisboa.