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Atlético Colegiales vs 3 de Febrero — Division Intermedia 2018

Atlético Colegiales
Atlético Colegiales
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
4/21/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 4Estadio Prof. Luciano Zacarías

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Atlético Colegiales33%
×Draw28%
3 de Febrero39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Colegiales
1.14
3 de Febrero
1.25

3 de Febrero creates 10% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 78 away

creates per match

Atlético Colegiales
0.96
3 de Febrero
1.03

allows per match

Atlético Colegiales
1.47
3 de Febrero
1.32

finishing

Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par
3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Colegiales ↓

3 de Febrero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Colegiales or draw
61%
Atlético Colegiales or 3 de Febrero
72%
Draw or 3 de Febrero
67%

Winning margin

Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+
14%
3 de Febrero wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals
32%
Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals
11%
3 de Febrero 1+ goals
71%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
36%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)
46%
3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Colegiales at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.96 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

3 de Febrero attack 1.03 + Atlético Colegiales defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Colegiales scores more
33%
level
28%
3 de Febrero scores more
39%

3 de Febrero at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "3 de Febrero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Colegiales vs 3 de Febrero

Atlético Colegiales beat 3 de Febrero 1-0 in Division Intermedia on April 21, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Prof. Luciano Zacarías in Asunción.