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3 de Febrero vs Atlético Colegiales — Division Intermedia 2018

3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Colegiales
Atlético Colegiales
7/30/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 19Estadio Pa'i Coronel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

3 de Febrero50%
×Draw24%
Atlético Colegiales26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3 de Febrero
1.67
Atlético Colegiales
1.12

3 de Febrero creates 49% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 44 away

creates per match

3 de Febrero
1.28
Atlético Colegiales
0.98

allows per match

3 de Febrero
1.26
Atlético Colegiales
2.05

finishing

3 de Febrero+0.00on par
Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3 de Febrero ↓

Atlético Colegiales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

3 de Febrero or draw
74%
3 de Febrero or Atlético Colegiales
76%
Draw or Atlético Colegiales
50%

Winning margin

3 de Febrero wins by 2+
27%
Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

3 de Febrero 1+ goals
81%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
50%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
23%
Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals
31%
Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
66%
Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3 de Febrero at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 78 matches

Atlético Colegiales away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3 de Febrero attack 1.28 + Atlético Colegiales defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.67

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.98 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

3 de Febrero scores more
50%
level
24%
Atlético Colegiales scores more
26%

3 de Febrero at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "3 de Febrero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 3 de Febrero vs Atlético Colegiales

3 de Febrero beat Atlético Colegiales 3-1 in Division Intermedia on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Pa'i Coronel in Minga Guazú.