Atlético Baleares 1–0 Melilla: Result & Stats

Atlético Baleares

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Melilla

10/29/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlético Baleares56%

×Draw26%

Melilla18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético BalearesExpected goals in this matchMelilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.71

Atlético Baleares

1.50

Melilla

0.71

Atlético Baleares creates 111% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.26

creates per match

0.37

1.04

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Atlético Baleares

1.26

Melilla

0.37

allows per match

Atlético Baleares

1.04

Melilla

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Melilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw

82%

Atlético Baleares or Melilla

74%

Draw or Melilla

44%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

29%

Melilla wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

78%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

44%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

19%

Melilla 1+ goals

51%

Melilla 2+ goals

16%

Melilla 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

76%

Melilla (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

Melilla away — creates 0.37, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 1.26 + Melilla defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Melilla attack 0.37 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more

56%

level

26%

Melilla scores more

18%

Atlético Baleares at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff