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Atlético Baleares vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
CANC
00:00
Melilla
Melilla
4/26/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Campo de Son Malferit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Atlético Baleares64%
×Draw20%
Melilla16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Baleares
2.10
Melilla
0.93

Atlético Baleares creates 126% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Atlético Baleares
2.27
Melilla
1.14

allows per match

Atlético Baleares
0.73
Melilla
1.93

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par
Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw
84%
Atlético Baleares or Melilla
80%
Draw or Melilla
36%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
40%
Melilla wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
88%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
62%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
35%
Melilla 1+ goals
61%
Melilla 2+ goals
24%
Melilla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
80%
Melilla (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Melilla away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 2.27 + Melilla defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.10

Melilla attack 1.14 + Atlético Baleares defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more
64%
level
20%
Melilla scores more
16%

Atlético Baleares at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atlético Baleares host Melilla

April 26, 2020: Atlético Baleares take on Melilla in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Atlético Baleares host Melilla at Campo de Son Malferit.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.