Atlético Baleares 2–1 Algeciras: Result & Stats

Atlético Baleares

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Algeciras

Dioni 56'

Vinícius Tanque 4'

Álvaro Romero 77'

1/23/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Atlético Baleares43%

×Draw28%

Algeciras29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético BalearesExpected goals in this matchAlgeciras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.04

Atlético Baleares

1.33

Algeciras

1.04

Atlético Baleares creates 28% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

1.26

creates per match

1.05

1.04

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Atlético Baleares

1.26

Algeciras

1.05

allows per match

Atlético Baleares

1.04

Algeciras

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Algeciras+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Algeciras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw

71%

Atlético Baleares or Algeciras

72%

Draw or Algeciras

57%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

20%

Algeciras wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

74%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

38%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

15%

Algeciras 1+ goals

65%

Algeciras 2+ goals

28%

Algeciras 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

60%

Algeciras (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

Algeciras away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 1.26 + Algeciras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Algeciras attack 1.05 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more

43%

level

28%

Algeciras scores more

29%

Atlético Baleares at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

José Peris← Víctor López

4'

Vinícius Tanque

56'

Dioni

61'

Josep

67'

Jesús Álvaro← José Fran

67'

Borja Fernández← Pepe Mena

67'

Javi Duarte← Iván Turrillo

67'

Juanito Serrano← Ferni

74'

Manel Martínez← Vinícius Tanque

77'

Álvaro Romero

86'

J. Duarte

90+1'

Adrià Nicoli← Josep Jaume

Atlético

Algeciras

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Tanque

▼

Fran

Manager: Xavier Calm

67'▲Jesús Álvaro←▼José Fran

74'▲Manel Martínez←▼Vinícius Tanque

90+1'▲Adrià Nicoli←▼Josep Jaume

Atlético Baleares substitutes

ÁlvaroMartínezNicoliRigoDolsFlorit

Manager: Iván Ania

3'▲José Peris←▼Víctor López

67'▲Borja Fernández←▼Pepe Mena

67'▲Javi Duarte←▼Iván Turrillo

67'▲Juanito Serrano←▼Ferni

Algeciras substitutes

PerisFernándezDuarteSerranoVillapalosNateraRijnTristán

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Atlético Baleares 2–1 Algeciras

Atlético Baleares beat Algeciras 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 23, 2022.

Goals: Vinícius Tanque (4'), Dioni (56'), Álvaro Romero (77').

The match was played at Estadio Balear in Palma de Mallorca, Illes Balears.

Atlético Baleares vs Algeciras — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Atlético Baleares 2–1 Algeciras