Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Algeciras vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Algeciras
Algeciras
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
5/5/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 35Estadio Nuevo Mirador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Algeciras49%
×Draw28%
Atlético Baleares23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeciras
1.33
Atlético Baleares
0.82

Algeciras creates 62% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 57 away

creates per match

Algeciras
1.25
Atlético Baleares
0.82

allows per match

Algeciras
0.82
Atlético Baleares
1.42

finishing

Algeciras+0.00on par
Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeciras ↓

Atlético Baleares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Algeciras or draw
77%
Algeciras or Atlético Baleares
72%
Draw or Atlético Baleares
51%

Winning margin

Algeciras wins by 2+
23%
Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Algeciras 1+ goals
74%
Algeciras 2+ goals
38%
Algeciras 3+ goals
15%
Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
20%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Algeciras (draw refunded)
68%
Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeciras at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.82 · 76 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeciras attack 1.25 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Atlético Baleares attack 0.82 + Algeciras defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Algeciras scores more
49%
level
28%
Atlético Baleares scores more
23%

Algeciras at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Algeciras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Algeciras 1–0 Atlético Baleares

Algeciras beat Atlético Baleares 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirador in Algeciras.