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Atlético Astorga vs Atlético Tordesillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Astorga
Atlético Astorga
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
2/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 19Estadio La Eragudina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Atlético Astorga47%
×Draw27%
Atlético Tordesillas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Astorga
1.38
Atlético Tordesillas
0.95

Atlético Astorga creates 45% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 110 away

creates per match

Atlético Astorga
1.68
Atlético Tordesillas
1.13

allows per match

Atlético Astorga
0.77
Atlético Tordesillas
1.07

finishing

Atlético Astorga+0.00on par
Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Astorga ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Astorga or draw
74%
Atlético Astorga or Atlético Tordesillas
73%
Draw or Atlético Tordesillas
53%

Winning margin

Atlético Astorga wins by 2+
22%
Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Astorga 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Astorga 2+ goals
40%
Atlético Astorga 3+ goals
16%
Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
61%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
25%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)
64%
Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Astorga at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.77 · 93 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Astorga attack 1.68 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.38

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atlético Astorga scores more
47%
level
27%
Atlético Tordesillas scores more
26%

Atlético Astorga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Atlético Astorga 0–0 Atlético Tordesillas

Atlético Astorga and Atlético Tordesillas drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Eragudina in Astorga.