Atlético Astorga 3–1 Atlético Tordesillas

Atlético Astorga

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Tordesillas

5/6/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundEstadio La Eragudina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atlético Astorga44%

×Draw27%

Atlético Tordesillas30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético AstorgaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Tordesillas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.10

Atlético Astorga

1.40

Atlético Tordesillas

1.10

Atlético Astorga creates 27% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.20

1.00

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Atlético Astorga

1.00

Atlético Tordesillas

1.20

allows per match

Atlético Astorga

1.00

Atlético Tordesillas

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Astorga+0.00on par

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Astorga ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Astorga or draw

70%

Atlético Astorga or Atlético Tordesillas

73%

Draw or Atlético Tordesillas

56%

Winning margin

Atlético Astorga wins by 2+

21%

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Atlético Astorga 1+ goals

75%

Atlético Astorga 2+ goals

41%

Atlético Astorga 3+ goals

17%

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals

67%

Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals

30%

Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)

60%

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Astorga at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Astorga attack 1.00 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.20 + Atlético Astorga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlético Astorga scores more

44%

level

27%

Atlético Tordesillas scores more

30%

Atlético Astorga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff