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Atlético Arteixo vs Arzúa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Arteixo
Atlético Arteixo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arzúa
Arzúa
4/9/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Estadio Municipal Arteixo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Atlético Arteixo51%
×Draw25%
Arzúa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Arteixo
1.59
Arzúa
1.00

Atlético Arteixo creates 59% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 79 away

creates per match

Atlético Arteixo
1.46
Arzúa
0.86

allows per match

Atlético Arteixo
1.15
Arzúa
1.73

finishing

Atlético Arteixo+0.00on par
Arzúa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Arteixo ↓

Arzúa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Arteixo or draw
76%
Atlético Arteixo or Arzúa
75%
Draw or Arzúa
49%

Winning margin

Atlético Arteixo wins by 2+
27%
Arzúa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Arteixo 1+ goals
80%
Atlético Arteixo 2+ goals
47%
Atlético Arteixo 3+ goals
21%
Arzúa 1+ goals
63%
Arzúa 2+ goals
26%
Arzúa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Arteixo (draw refunded)
68%
Arzúa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Arteixo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 67 matches

Arzúa away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.73 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Arteixo attack 1.46 + Arzúa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.59

Arzúa attack 0.86 + Atlético Arteixo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atlético Arteixo scores more
51%
level
25%
Arzúa scores more
24%

Atlético Arteixo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atlético Arteixo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Atlético Arteixo 1–0 Arzúa

Atlético Arteixo beat Arzúa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Arteixo in Arteixo.