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Arzúa vs Atlético Arteixo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arzúa
Arzúa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Arteixo
Atlético Arteixo
12/11/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Estadio Do Viso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Arzúa41%
×Draw27%
Atlético Arteixo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzúa
1.33
Atlético Arteixo
1.15

Arzúa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 67 away

creates per match

Arzúa
1.31
Atlético Arteixo
1.22

allows per match

Arzúa
1.08
Atlético Arteixo
1.36

finishing

Arzúa+0.00on par
Atlético Arteixo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzúa ↓

Atlético Arteixo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arzúa or draw
68%
Arzúa or Atlético Arteixo
73%
Draw or Atlético Arteixo
59%

Winning margin

Arzúa wins by 2+
19%
Atlético Arteixo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Arzúa 1+ goals
74%
Arzúa 2+ goals
38%
Arzúa 3+ goals
15%
Atlético Arteixo 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Arteixo 2+ goals
32%
Atlético Arteixo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arzúa (draw refunded)
56%
Atlético Arteixo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzúa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 78 matches

Atlético Arteixo away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzúa attack 1.31 + Atlético Arteixo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Atlético Arteixo attack 1.22 + Arzúa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arzúa scores more
41%
level
27%
Atlético Arteixo scores more
32%

Arzúa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arzúa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Arzúa 2–1 Atlético Arteixo

Arzúa beat Atlético Arteixo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Do Viso in Arzúa.