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Atlas vs Santos Laguna — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Atlas
Atlas
FT
2 – 3
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
1/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atlas22%
×Draw22%
Santos Laguna56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlas
1.17
Santos Laguna
2.00

Santos Laguna creates 71% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Atlas
1.33
Santos Laguna
2.33

allows per match

Atlas
1.67
Santos Laguna
1.00

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par
Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Atlas or draw
44%
Atlas or Santos Laguna
78%
Draw or Santos Laguna
78%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+
9%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals
69%
Atlas 2+ goals
33%
Atlas 3+ goals
11%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
86%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
59%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)
28%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.33 + Santos Laguna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Santos Laguna attack 2.33 + Atlas defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atlas scores more
22%
level
22%
Santos Laguna scores more
56%

Santos Laguna at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlas vs Santos Laguna

Santos Laguna beat Atlas 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 6, 2024.