Atlas 1–2 Monterrey: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Atlas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Monterrey

3/17/2024

Liga MX · Clausura - 12Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Atlas35%

×Draw27%

Monterrey38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtlasExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.27

Atlas

1.20

Monterrey

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 142 home / 155 away

1.12

creates per match

1.35

1.19

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Atlas

1.12

Monterrey

1.35

allows per match

Atlas

1.19

Monterrey

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par

Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atlas or draw

62%

Atlas or Monterrey

73%

Draw or Monterrey

65%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+

15%

Monterrey wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals

70%

Atlas 2+ goals

34%

Atlas 3+ goals

12%

Monterrey 1+ goals

72%

Monterrey 2+ goals

36%

Monterrey 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)

48%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 142 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.28 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.12 + Monterrey defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Monterrey attack 1.35 + Atlas defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlas scores more

35%

level

27%

Monterrey scores more

38%

Monterrey at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff