Atlas 0–1 Monarcas: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Atlas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Monarcas

C. Guzmán 3'

10/18/2017

Liga MX · Apertura - 10Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Atlas39%

×Draw27%

Monarcas34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtlasExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.23

Atlas

1.34

Monarcas

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 142 home / 50 away

1.13

creates per match

1.28

1.19

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Atlas

1.13

Monarcas

1.28

allows per match

Atlas

1.19

Monarcas

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlas or draw

66%

Atlas or Monarcas

73%

Draw or Monarcas

61%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+

18%

Monarcas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals

74%

Atlas 2+ goals

39%

Atlas 3+ goals

15%

Monarcas 1+ goals

71%

Monarcas 2+ goals

35%

Monarcas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)

54%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 142 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.13 + Monarcas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.34

Monarcas attack 1.28 + Atlas defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlas scores more

39%

level

27%

Monarcas scores more

34%

Atlas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

C. Guzmán

Monarcas · D

7.6

Match Events

3'

C. Guzmán↳ R. Ruidíaz

10'

Sebastián Vegas

20'

Gerardo Rodríguez

46'

J. Barraza← J. Vigón

46'

M. Alustiza← Fidel Martínez

60'

62'

63'

70'

76'

G. Lezcano← A. Sepúlveda

79'

D. Arreola← R. Morrison

86'

J. Rodríguez← R. Millar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtlasMonarcas

Overview

52%Possession48%

19Total Shots6

8Corners4

15Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots6

3On Target2

10Off Target4

6Blocked0

11Inside Box4

8Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

366Total Passes345

284Accurate Passes260

78%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2