Atlante FC vs Potros Uaem — Liga de Expansión MX 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
Atlante FC57%
Potros Uaem18%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Atlante FC creates 103% more chances
Season form · 146 home / 25 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Atlante FC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Atlante FC at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.62 · 146 matches
Potros Uaem away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Atlante FC attack 1.73 + Potros Uaem defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.60
Potros Uaem attack 0.96 + Atlante FC defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.79
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Atlante FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Atlante FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
CDS Tampico Madero
Cancún
TepatitlánAtlante FC
Monarcas
Mineros de Zacatecas
Irapuato
CA La Paz
Tapatío
Leones Negros UDG
Venados FC
Tlaxcala
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Correcaminos Uat
DoradosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Atlante FC host Potros Uaem on Saturday, 10 November 2018 at 01:00. The match is part of the Liga de Expansión MX 2018/2019 season.
Atlante FC 1 – 0 Potros Uaem
Atlante FC beat Potros Uaem 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on November 10, 2018.
Goals: L. Echeverría (79').
The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo (Cancún).