Atlante FC 1–0 Potros Uaem: Result & Stats

Atlante FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Potros Uaem

P. Arce 62'

2/3/2018

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 6Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo (Cancún)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atlante FC58%

×Draw25%

Potros Uaem17%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlante FCExpected goals in this matchPotros Uaem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.73

Atlante FC

1.58

Potros Uaem

0.73

Atlante FC creates 116% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 34 away

1.75

creates per match

0.85

0.62

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Atlante FC

1.75

Potros Uaem

0.85

allows per match

Atlante FC

0.62

Potros Uaem

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlante FC+0.00on par

Potros Uaem+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlante FC ↓

Potros Uaem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atlante FC or draw

83%

Atlante FC or Potros Uaem

75%

Draw or Potros Uaem

42%

Winning margin

Atlante FC wins by 2+

31%

Potros Uaem wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atlante FC 1+ goals

79%

Atlante FC 2+ goals

47%

Atlante FC 3+ goals

21%

Potros Uaem 1+ goals

52%

Potros Uaem 2+ goals

17%

Potros Uaem 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atlante FC (draw refunded)

77%

Potros Uaem (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlante FC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.62 · 151 matches

Potros Uaem away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlante FC attack 1.75 + Potros Uaem defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Potros Uaem attack 0.85 + Atlante FC defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Atlante FC scores more

58%

level

25%

Potros Uaem scores more

17%

Atlante FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Atlante FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

52'

62'

65'

70'

G. Maldonado← C. Tarragona

76'

D. Campos← P. Arce

86'

E. Ezperon← D. Cardozo

Atlante

Potros

13

Estrada

8

▼

Solís

4

Rippa

5

Gutiérrez

14

▼

Vázquez

3

Morales

20

Vargas

23

▼

7

17

11

21

6

15

32

30

▼

5

13

27

8

22

⚽

▼

Arce

31

▼

Tarragona

Manager: S. Bueno

70'▲G. Maldonado←▼C. Tarragona

76'▲D. Campos←▼P. Arce

86'▲E. Ezperon←▼D. Cardozo

Atlante FC substitutes

9Maldonado33Campos16Ezperon4Gamboa11Aguilar35Bravo7Bueno

Manager: H. Eugui

46'▲A. Ochoa←▼F. Celeste

52'▲A. Bello←▼E. Solís

65'▲D. Gama←▼E. Vázquez

Potros Uaem substitutes

27Ochoa25Bello19Gama9Osorio12Vences18Rosales33Bronzatti