Atlantas 1–0 Kruoja: Result & Stats | A Lyga

Atlantas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kruoja

L. Baranauskas 86'

11/29/2014

A Lyga · Round 36Klaipėdos m. centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Atlantas48%

×Draw25%

Kruoja28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtlantasExpected goals in this matchKruoja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.18

Atlantas

1.63

Kruoja

1.18

Atlantas creates 38% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 8 away

1.38

creates per match

0.88

1.48

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Atlantas

1.38

Kruoja

0.88

allows per match

Atlantas

1.48

Kruoja

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlantas+0.00on par

Kruoja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlantas ↓

Kruoja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Atlantas or draw

72%

Atlantas or Kruoja

75%

Draw or Kruoja

52%

Winning margin

Atlantas wins by 2+

25%

Kruoja wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atlantas 1+ goals

80%

Atlantas 2+ goals

48%

Atlantas 3+ goals

22%

Kruoja 1+ goals

69%

Kruoja 2+ goals

33%

Kruoja 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Atlantas (draw refunded)

63%

Kruoja (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlantas at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Kruoja away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlantas attack 1.38 + Kruoja defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Kruoja attack 0.88 + Atlantas defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlantas scores more

48%

level

25%

Kruoja scores more

28%

Atlantas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlantas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

86'

L. Baranauskas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff