Kruoja 1–2 Atlantas: Result & Stats | A Lyga

Kruoja

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atlantas

R. Beniušis 68' (pen)

A. Jokšas 89'

D. Virkšas 6'

6/21/2015

A Lyga · Round 17Pakruojo miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kruoja59%

×Draw21%

Atlantas21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KruojaExpected goals in this matchAtlantas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.20

Kruoja

2.15

Atlantas

1.20

Kruoja creates 79% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 26 away

2.38

creates per match

1.15

1.25

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Kruoja

2.38

Atlantas

1.15

allows per match

Kruoja

1.25

Atlantas

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kruoja+0.00on par

Atlantas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kruoja ↓

Atlantas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Kruoja or draw

79%

Kruoja or Atlantas

79%

Draw or Atlantas

41%

Winning margin

Kruoja wins by 2+

36%

Atlantas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kruoja 1+ goals

88%

Kruoja 2+ goals

63%

Kruoja 3+ goals

36%

Atlantas 1+ goals

70%

Atlantas 2+ goals

34%

Atlantas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kruoja (draw refunded)

74%

Atlantas (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kruoja at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Atlantas away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kruoja attack 2.38 + Atlantas defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.15

Atlantas attack 1.15 + Kruoja defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kruoja scores more

59%

level

21%

Atlantas scores more

21%

Kruoja at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kruoja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

D. Virkšas

63'

G. Žukauskas← D. Virkšas

68'

R. BeniušisPenalty

78'

B. Diarra← T. Salamanavičius

89'

A. Jokšas

90+3'

S. Rakauskas← L. Baranauskas

Kruoja

Atlantas

12

Gertmonas

25

Epifanov

18

⚽

23

5

32

6

20

19

⚽

▼

Virkšas

21

▼

7

1

84

77

3

10

4

45

27

9

▼

Salamanav

8

⚽

Beniušis

18

Bagočius

78'▲B. Diarra←▼T. Salamanavičius

Kruoja substitutes

36Diarra2Mikaitis12Bražinskas22Adamenko26Visockas50Olberkis

63'▲G. Žukauskas←▼D. Virkšas

90+3'▲S. Rakauskas←▼L. Baranauskas

Atlantas substitutes

77Žukauskas14Rakauskas1Malinauskas10Jurgelevičius28Raziūnas35Žarskis95Kasparavičius