Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atlanta vs Almirante Brown — Primera Nacional 2026

Atlanta
Atlanta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Almirante Brown
Almirante Brown
6/24/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 20Estadio Don León Kolbovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Atlanta45%
×Draw30%
Almirante Brown25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlanta
1.21
Almirante Brown
0.83

Atlanta creates 46% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 102 away

creates per match

Atlanta
1.17
Almirante Brown
0.85

allows per match

Atlanta
0.81
Almirante Brown
1.26

finishing

Atlanta+0.00on par
Almirante Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlanta ↓

Almirante Brown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atlanta or draw
75%
Atlanta or Almirante Brown
70%
Draw or Almirante Brown
55%

Winning margin

Atlanta wins by 2+
20%
Almirante Brown wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlanta 1+ goals
70%
Atlanta 2+ goals
34%
Atlanta 3+ goals
12%
Almirante Brown 1+ goals
56%
Almirante Brown 2+ goals
20%
Almirante Brown 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlanta (draw refunded)
64%
Almirante Brown (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlanta at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.81 · 116 matches

Almirante Brown away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlanta attack 1.17 + Almirante Brown defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Almirante Brown attack 0.85 + Atlanta defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlanta scores more
45%
level
30%
Almirante Brown scores more
25%

Atlanta at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlanta vs Almirante Brown

Atlanta beat Almirante Brown 1-0 in Primera Nacional on June 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Don León Kolbovski in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.