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Almirante Brown vs Atlanta — Primera Nacional 2026

Almirante Brown
Almirante Brown
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlanta
Atlanta
2/4/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 1Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Almirante Brown41%
×Draw32%
Atlanta27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almirante Brown
1.05
Atlanta
0.79

Almirante Brown creates 33% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 111 away

creates per match

Almirante Brown
0.97
Atlanta
0.84

allows per match

Almirante Brown
0.75
Atlanta
1.13

finishing

Almirante Brown+0.00on par
Atlanta+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almirante Brown ↓

Atlanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Almirante Brown or draw
73%
Almirante Brown or Atlanta
68%
Draw or Atlanta
59%

Winning margin

Almirante Brown wins by 2+
16%
Atlanta wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Almirante Brown 1+ goals
65%
Almirante Brown 2+ goals
28%
Almirante Brown 3+ goals
9%
Atlanta 1+ goals
55%
Atlanta 2+ goals
19%
Atlanta 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)
60%
Atlanta (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almirante Brown at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.75 · 104 matches

Atlanta away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.13 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almirante Brown attack 0.97 + Atlanta defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Atlanta attack 0.84 + Almirante Brown defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Almirante Brown scores more
41%
level
32%
Atlanta scores more
27%

Almirante Brown at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Almirante Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Almirante Brown 0–1 Atlanta

Atlanta beat Almirante Brown 1-0 in Primera Nacional on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento in La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires.