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ATK Mohun Bagan vs Mumbai City — Indian Super League 2025

ATK Mohun Bagan
ATK Mohun Bagan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mumbai City
Mumbai City
P. Noufal 27'
3/20/2026Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 6Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

ATK Mohun Bagan54%
×Draw25%
Mumbai City21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ATK Mohun Bagan
1.60
Mumbai City
0.88

ATK Mohun Bagan creates 82% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

ATK Mohun Bagan
2.15
Mumbai City
1.21

allows per match

ATK Mohun Bagan
0.54
Mumbai City
1.05

finishing

ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par
Mumbai City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATK Mohun Bagan ↓

Mumbai City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

ATK Mohun Bagan or draw
79%
ATK Mohun Bagan or Mumbai City
75%
Draw or Mumbai City
46%

Winning margin

ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
29%
Mumbai City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
80%
ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
47%
ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
22%
Mumbai City 1+ goals
59%
Mumbai City 2+ goals
22%
Mumbai City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
72%
Mumbai City (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATK Mohun Bagan at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 2.15 + Mumbai City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.60

Mumbai City attack 1.21 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ATK Mohun Bagan scores more
54%
level
25%
Mumbai City scores more
21%

ATK Mohun Bagan at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ATK Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45
ApuiaATK Mohun BaganATK Mohun Bagan · M
7.9

Match Events

2'
Jorge Pereyra Díaz
27'
P. Noufal↳ J. Kauko
45+3'
Valpuia
46'
Robinho← J. Cummings
46'
D. Tangri← A. Thapa
46'
Z. Zothanpuia← B. Lalnuntluanga
48'
Deepak Tangri
55'
V. Partap Singh← J. Pereyra
62'
Dimitri Petratos
63'
Akash Mishra
72'
F. R. Nazareth← M. J. Ortiz
77'
S. Samad←
80'
Vikram Partap Singh
86'
A. Chhikara← P. Noufal
86'
Amandeep← J. Kauko
88'
M. Singh← M. Singh

Possession

78%ATK

Shots

17ATK

Pass accuracy

61%ATK

Statistics

ATKMumbai
Overview
78%Possession22%
17Total Shots10
0.77Expected Goals (xG)0.82
17Corners1
6Fouls18
Shots
17Total Shots10
6On Target5
5Off Target3
6Blocked2
9Inside Box6
8Outside Box4
Passing
78%Possession22%
592Total Passes171
509Accurate Passes96
86%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
Discipline
6Fouls18
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides3

Match Recap: ATK Mohun Bagan vs Mumbai City

Mumbai City beat ATK Mohun Bagan 1-0 in Indian Super League on March 20, 2026.

Goals: P. Noufal (27').

ATK Mohun Bagan controlled possession (78%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan in Kolkata.