ATK Mohun Bagan 2–2 Mumbai City: Result & Stats

ATK Mohun Bagan

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Mumbai City

Alberto Rodríguez 28'

Tiri 9' (OG)

Thaer Krouma 90'

Tiri 70'

9/13/2024

Indian Super League · Round 1Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

ATK Mohun Bagan48%

×Draw25%

Mumbai City26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ATK Mohun BaganExpected goals in this matchMumbai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.09

ATK Mohun Bagan

1.57

Mumbai City

1.09

ATK Mohun Bagan creates 44% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 24 away

2.06

creates per match

1.38

0.81

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

ATK Mohun Bagan

2.06

Mumbai City

1.38

allows per match

ATK Mohun Bagan

0.81

Mumbai City

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Mumbai City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATK Mohun Bagan ↓

Mumbai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

ATK Mohun Bagan or draw

74%

ATK Mohun Bagan or Mumbai City

75%

Draw or Mumbai City

52%

Winning margin

ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+

25%

Mumbai City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals

79%

ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals

46%

ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals

21%

Mumbai City 1+ goals

66%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

30%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)

65%

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATK Mohun Bagan at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 2.06 + Mumbai City defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.57

Mumbai City attack 1.38 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ATK Mohun Bagan scores more

48%

level

25%

Mumbai City scores more

26%

ATK Mohun Bagan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ATK Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Alberto Rodríguez

ATK Mohun Bagan · D

7.7

Match Events

9'

TiriOwn goal

25'

Jayesh Rane

28'

Alberto Rodríguez↳ G. Stewart

41'

J. Manzorro← Jon Toral

53'

Vishal Kaith

58'

Yoëll van Nieff

63'

Noufal PN← J. Rane

70'

Tiri↳ N. Karelis

71'

S. Abdul Samad← L. Colaço

71'

A. Thapa← A. Suryavanshi

81'

T. Aldred← Alberto Rodríguez

85'

Apuia

85'

V. Partap Singh← B. Singh

85'

Thaer Krouma← N. Karelis

85'

B. Fernandes← J. Manzorro

86'

89'

90+5'

90+5'

90+3'

90'

Thaer Krouma↳ Noufal PN

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ATKMumbai

Overview

47%Possession53%

5Total Shots15

5Corners7

14Fouls12

Shots

5Total Shots15

2On Target6

0Off Target7

3Blocked2

1Inside Box9

4Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

358Total Passes407

286Accurate Passes348

80%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls12

4Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2