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ATK Mohun Bagan vs Goa — Indian Super League 2019

ATK Mohun Bagan
ATK Mohun Bagan
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Goa
Goa
12/23/2023Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 11Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

ATK Mohun Bagan47%
×Draw24%
Goa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ATK Mohun Bagan
1.67
Goa
1.27

ATK Mohun Bagan creates 31% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 72 away

creates per match

ATK Mohun Bagan
1.82
Goa
1.67

allows per match

ATK Mohun Bagan
0.88
Goa
1.51

finishing

ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par
Goa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATK Mohun Bagan ↓

Goa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

ATK Mohun Bagan or draw
71%
ATK Mohun Bagan or Goa
76%
Draw or Goa
53%

Winning margin

ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
25%
Goa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
81%
ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
50%
ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
23%
Goa 1+ goals
72%
Goa 2+ goals
36%
Goa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
62%
Goa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATK Mohun Bagan at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.88 · 68 matches

Goa away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.51 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 1.82 + Goa defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.67

Goa attack 1.67 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ATK Mohun Bagan scores more
47%
level
24%
Goa scores more
29%

ATK Mohun Bagan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ATK Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Indian Super League: ATK Mohun Bagan 1–4 Goa

Goa beat ATK Mohun Bagan 4-1 in Indian Super League on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan Stadium in Kolkata.